Pero la fuerza de Uzbekistn yace tambin en la composicin tnica de su poblacin. Al contrario de otras naciones de Asia Central con la excepcin de Turkmenistn, Uzbekistn est poblada mayormente por un solo grupo tnico: los uzbecos suman un 80 por ciento de la poblacin. Esto ayuda a crear una identidad nacional y un sentido de lugar en una regin de diversas y mezcladas etnias que tiene todava una gama de disputas fronterizas.

El presidente uzbeco Islam Karimov fue primer secretario del partido Comunista local antes de la cada de la Unin Sovitica. Sin solucin de continuidad, l pas a gobernar un Uzbekistn independiente y ha sido presidente por los pasados 12 aos; un referndum reciente extendi su mandato hasta el 2007.

Uzbekistn, al igual que la mayora de los gobiernos a travs de Asia, est confrontando una fuerza insurgente o terrorista. El objetivo del Movimiento Islmico de Uzbekistn (MIU) es derrocar el rgimen secular de Karimov, el cual es considerado anatema de un estado islmico. Naturalmente, Karimov ha reaccionado con la represin generalizada del islamismo politizado, as como la de los musulmanes en general. Uzbekistn tiene hoy ms de 7.000 prisioneros polticos, aunque algunos grupos uzbecos de derechos humanos, tales como la Sociedad de Derechos Humanos de Uzbekistn (SDHU), sostienen que la cantidad real probablemente est en las decenas de miles. La mayora de estos prisioneros son miembros del grupo islmico Hizb-ut-Tahrir, cuyo objetivo es retornar pacficamente la institucin del califato a un imperio pan-islmico todava por formar.

La amenaza del MIU es uno de los temas regionales ms importantes para Tashkent [Uzbekistn] y tambin una causa de conflicto entre el rgimen de Karimov y el de su par en Tayikistn, presidente Imomali Rakhmonov, a quien Karimov acusa de cobijar guerrillas del MIU permitindoles viajar libremente hacia Uzbekistn. Se estima que el lder del grupo guerrillero, Juma Namangani, fue matado en accin en la campaa de bombardeos estadounidenses cuando l peleaba en Afganistn; y si bien la presencia pblica del grupo ha decrecido, informes recientes indican que todava est activo y reclutando miembros.

Otro problema regional de Uzbekistn es mantener el paso de su rival principal, Kazajstn, el cual, gracias a sus masivos campos petroleros ubicados en su zona este, es recipiente de la mayor suma de inversin extranjera directa (IED) otorgada a cualquiera de los estados nacientes de Asia Central. Esto ayuda a Kazajstn a competir con Uzbekistn por la superioridad econmica regional.

El liderazgo en Tashkent tambin es conciente de mantener sus vnculos con EEUU y la UE, distancindose a la vez de Rusia; sin embargo, este no siempre es el caso, dado que la economa uzbeca todava depende de sus lazos naturales con esta ltima. Esta situacin causa cierta confusin por parte de Karimov, quien tiende a vacilar en en cuanto a con qu bloque identificarse.

Es con afn que el presidente Karimov ha provisto a EEUU la base area de Khanabad a cambio de mayores prstamos, participacin directa en la modernizacin de las fuerzas armadas uzbecas, y los beneficios generales de ser un socio estratgico vital de Washington en la zona. Tashkent espera que esta nueva asociacin con EEUU la liberar, aunque slo fuera por unos meses o aos, de la influencia de una Rusia activa en la regin norte aunque sin fronteras directas con Uzbekistn. El presidente Karimov ha sido abiertamente crtico de una renovada actividad militar rusa en Kirgistan donde EEUU utiliza el aeropuerto internacional de Manas como establecimiento militar en su guerra contra el terrorismo.

En abril de 1999 Uzbekistn devino miembro de GUUAM -una alianza euroasitica formada por Georgia, Ukrania, Uzbekistn, Azerbaiyn y Moldovia- diseada para fortalecer la independencia y soberana de estas repblicas de la ex Unin Sovitica. Debido a que uno de los principios fundadores de GUUAM es buscar una mayor cooperacin y vnculos ms profundos con la OTAN, la ONU y EEUU, esta es considerada demasiado pro-occidental por muchos en Asia Central.

Pero Uzbekistn tambin es miembro reciente de la Organizacin de Cooperacin Shangai (OCS), lo cual alnea a Karimov con Rusia, China y los otros miembros Kirgistan, Kazajstn y Tayikistn. Washington considera que la OCS es una alianza anti-occidental de potencias regionales diseada tal vez para crear la ilusin de que Asia Central es ms cooperativa y unida de lo que realmente es, y es por eso que nadie fuera de la regin toma seriamente a la OCS.

Muchos analistas estn intrigados frente a tales movidas de Tashkent y las consideran indicativas de un rgimen en problemas. Un informe reciente del Grupo Crisis Internacional (GCI) concluye que Uzbekistn y el liderazgo de Karimov han fallado en tomar ventaja de una nueva relacin con EEUU, y de los programas del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) para liberalizar la economa uzbeca y dar los pasos necesarios hacia una completa modernizacin.

El informe dice: Un Programa Supervisado por el Personal (PSP) del FMI, que se haba acordado en enero del 2002, debera haber llevado a reformas agriculturales mayores, mejoras en el sistema bancario, liberalizacin comercial y a medidas para la convertibilidad de la moneda extranjera en julio del 2002. El gobierno no cumpli con ninguno de los objetivos.

Acerca del por qu, el informe explica: Son complejas las razones por las cuales el gobierno fracas en tomar ventaja de una mejor situacin externa y de un generalizado apoyo internacional para avanzar con las reformas, pero en su mayora se relacionan con un sistema poltico dominado a todos los niveles por intereses creados que tienen una gran inversin en el status quo y en mantenerlo. Los programas tambin han sido frenados por una maquinaria burocrtica que teme el cambio y a la cual le falta la capacidad para implementar reformas. Un pueblo con una larga historia de gobiernos autoritarios ha sido tambin lento en tomar iniciativas independientes y luchar por nuevas libertades.

A pesar de ello, EEUU probablemente mantendr vnculos cercanos con el rgimen de Karimov ya que su cooperacin e instalaciones militares pueden todava jugar un rol vital en los planes que Washington tiene para el Medio Oriente y Asia Central. Esto es ms relevante que nunca tras la guerra en Irak. Matthew Riemer

Uzbekistan is Washingtons key strategic partner in Central Asia and the strongest state in the region. With the largest population of the five Central Asian Republics (CAR) -- 25 million -- and buoyed by generous loans from the United States, Uzbekistan also has one of the most promising economies as well, experiencing six straight years of gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

But Uzbekistans strength also lies in the ethnic composite of its population. Unlike other Central Asian nations, Turkmenistan being the one exception, Uzbekistan is made up predominantly of one ethnicity: Uzbeks comprise about 80 percent of the population. This aids in the creation of a national identity and sense of place in an ethnically diverse and intermingled region still struggling with an array of border disputes.

Uzbekistans President Islam Karimov was the first secretary of the local communist party before the fall of the Soviet Union. He seamlessly came to rule independent Uzbekistan and now has remained president for the last 12 years; there was recently a referendum held extending his term until 2007.

Uzbekistan, like most governments throughout Asia, is facing an insurgent or "terrorist" force. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) is dedicated to toppling the secular Karimov regime, which they see as anathema to an Islamist state. Without much surprise, Karimov has reacted with widespread oppression of politicized Islam as well as Muslims in general. Uzbekistan currently has over 7,000 political prisoners, although some Uzbek human rights groups, such as the Human Rights Society of Uzbekistan (HRSU) maintain that the real figures are more likely in the tens of thousands. The bulk of these prisoners are members of the Islamic group Hizb-ut-Tahrir: a group dedicated to non-violently returning the institute of the caliphate to a yet-to-be-formed Pan-Muslim empire.

The threat posed by the IMU is one of Tashkents most important regional issues and also a source of conflict between Karimovs regime and his counterpart in Tajikistan, President Imomali Rakhmonov, who he accuses of harboring IMU guerrillas and allowing them to travel freely into Uzbekistan. The groups leader, Juma Namangani, is thought to have been killed in fighting in Afghanistan during the U.S. bombing campaign; and though their presence has seen a decrease, recent reports indicate that they are still active and recruiting members.

Uzbekistans other regional concerns involve keeping pace with their chief rival, Kazakhstan, who, because of the massive oil fields in the eastern part of the county, is a depository for the largest sums of foreign direct investment (FDI) afforded any of the fledgling states in Central Asia. This helps Kazakhstan compete economically with Uzbekistan for regional economic superiority.

The leadership in Tashkent is also conscious of continuing to link themselves with the United States and European Union while distancing themselves from Russia; however, this is not always the case as the Uzbek economy is still reliant on its natural ties with Russia. This situation has led to a bit of confusion on Karimovs part, as he tends to vacillate on which bloc to most strongly identify with.

President Karimov has eagerly turned over Khanabad airbase to the United States in exchange for increased loans, direct involvement in modernizing the Uzbek military, and the general benefits of being a regionally vital strategic partner of Washingtons. Tashkent hopes this new partnership with the United States will free them, if only for a few months or years, from the influence of a regionally active Russia to the north, though the latter does not share a border with Uzbekistan. President Karimov has spoken out against renewed Russian military activity in Kyrgyzstan where the United States uses Manas International Airport as a military facility in the "war on terrorism."

In April 1999, Uzbekistan became a member of GUUAM -- a Eurasian alliance of Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldava, "designed to strengthen the independence and sovereignty of these former Soviet Union republics." Because GUUAM as one of its founding principles seeks greater cooperation and deeper ties with NATO, the United Nations and the United States it is seen by many in Central Asia to be too pro-Western.

But Uzbekistan is also a recent member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) aligning Karimov closely with Russia, China and the other members -- Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. The SCO is seen in Washington as an anti-Western alliance of regional powers designed to perhaps create the illusion that Central Asia is more cooperative and united than it really is; to this end, the SCO is not taken seriously by many outside the region.

Many analysts puzzle over such moves by Tashkent and see them as indicative of a regime in turmoil. A recent report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) concludes that Uzbekistan and the Karimov leadership has failed to take advantage of a new relationship with the United States and programs with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to liberalize the Uzbek economy and take the necessary steps towards complete modernization.

The report states: "An IMF Staff Monitored Program (SMP) agreed in January 2002 was supposed to lead to major agricultural reforms, improvements in the banking system, trade liberalization, and moves toward foreign exchange convertibility by July 2002. The government met none of the key targets."

As to why this is: "The reasons why the government failed to take advantage of an improved external environment and widespread international support to move on reform are complex but mostly relate to a political system dominated by vested interests at all levels that have a considerable investment in retaining the status quo. A bureaucratic machine that fears change and lacks the capacity to implement reforms has also slowed any program. A people with a long history of authoritarian rulers has also been slow to take independent action and struggle for new freedoms."

Despite this, the United States is likely to keep close ties with the Karimov regime as their cooperation and military facilities can still play a vital role in Washingtons game plan for the Middle East and Central Asia. With the recent war in Iraq this is more relevant than ever.

Matthew Riemer